This race lacks pace. In fact, only Woodbine stakes winner Dixie Moon (12) seems certain to be asked for speed from the get-go. She may be joined on the front end by Ultima D (5). She made all to win a stake at Kentucky Downs in September but her rider got away with very soft fractions. If the pace is even, fillies that will be forwardly positioned and can save ground will have a massive advantage.
Aiden O’Brien’s HAPPILY (2), the mount of Ryan Moore is well drawn and has tactical speed. She is the class of this event recording back to back Group 1 victories at the Curragh (Moyglare) and latterly against the boys at Chantilly on Arc day. In the first, she had stable mate September (10) almost four lengths back in third. She lost a Group 1 by a nose next time out. Happily (2) only made her debut in June and has improved in each of her six career starts. The one unknown is the likely ground. She’s never raced on anything firmer than ‘good’.
Chad Brown trains two of the leading home contenders. The unbeaten Rushing Fall (11) followed up a maiden win on debut with a nearly last to first Grade 3 success at Keeneland last month. The race rather fell apart late on but a three plus length victory suggests she is a quality filly. That closing kick may not be as effective on much faster ground and she has much better competition to chase down. Her barn mate Significant Form (8) has been first past the post in both her career starts too. The latest came in a Grade 3 at Belmont. She had a length to spare of Best Performance (1) with Orbolution (6) third.
Group 1 Cheverly Park Stakes third Madeline (4) and fourth and Now You're Talking (3) are both stepping up in distance. The latter had far from a clean trip but still ran a career best. The maiden runs as if she’ll improve for more ground and is likely to handle the fast ground. She’s not impossible to have at a big price from a good post. Group 2 Rockfell winner Juliet Capulet (13) has an awful draw to overcome. John Gosden’s filly has made giant strides lately and runs as if she’ll improve now stepping up to a mile. Interestingly, she finished a length in front of Capla Temptress (7) in a Group 3 at Newmarket in August. That filly outfinished Dixie Moon (7) to win a Grade 1 at Woodbine in September.
The former French trained Fatale Bere (9) won a stake at Santa Anita on her US debut. She and nose runner-up Moon Dash (14) came from off the pace with Del Mar maiden winner Retro (15) back in third.
Selection: HAPPILY (2)
Longshot: NOW YOU'RE TALKING (3)
Exotic Play: (no exotics)