Breeders' Cup - At The Races

21:25 Del Mar (USA) 3 Nov 2017

Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1) (2YO only)

Winner $630,000 - 14 ran

6
Weighed In

LAST YEAR'S WINNER - NEW MONEY HONEY

New Money Honey
  • Trainer: Chad Brown
  • Jockey: Javier Castellano
  • Owner: Juddmonte Farms Inc
  • Odds: 13/5
  • Betting Stats
  • Favourites: 1/6 (16.7%) | Level stake loss -43.3%
  • Odds on Favs: 0/0 (0.0%)
  • Median winning price: 8.4/1

The Fillies Juvenile Turf division was instituted a year after the male version but both have been contested in California six times.

How has the favourite fared?
Punters playing favourites in this division when it is run in California would have exactly the same win and level stake loss percentage as the girls’ division, with the sole favourite to prevail (Lady Eli) returning just 2.4/1 She remains the only filly from the first three in the market to take the top prize and only one other managed to get in the first three!

Run record and class clues
Chad Brown has saddled three of the six winners in this division and all three won the Miss Gillo (G3) on their final prep and with Tapitsfly taking 2nd in that race in 2009 before annexing this, it makes the Belmont event a key race. This year Chad Brown is scheduled to run the 2017 Miss Grillo winner, Significant Form who, incidentally, is owned by former supermodel Stephanie Seymour Brant.

Two winners have travelled from Europe to take this, the ill-fated Chriselliam and Flotilla and both had good form in top events over here. Aidan O’Brien has only hit the frame with one runner from six starters in California (Heart Shaped in 2008) but, from the ante post market it looks like he could make a strong challenge this year. Generally, the European challenge for this has not been as strong as in the males’ event.

Four of the winners arrived with a win last time out and the other two had performed with credit in major races.

Run styles
Tapitsfly prompted the pace when she won in 2009 but, other than her, the run style to thrive in this has been deep closing, although a couple have raced in midfield before striking late.

Draw
The impact of the draw is very slightly less pronounced than in the Juvenile Turf division but it has definitely been advantageous drawing the inner half of the gate, with four of the winners coming from the inside four post positions.

Conclusions

  • Trainer Chad Brown has an excellent record in this event.
  • Upgrade the chances of runners drawing the inside half of the starting gate.
  • Classy closers from Europe should be competitive.
  • Don’t be put off is your pick isn’t among the market leaders.
  • Look for a strong last out performance.
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