Breeders' Cup - At The Races

22:50 Del Mar (USA) 3 Nov 2017

Race 8 - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1) (2YO only)

Winner $630,000 - 14 ran

8
Weighed In

LAST YEAR'S WINNER - OSCAR PERFORMANCE

Oscar Performance
  • Trainer: Brian Lynch
  • Jockey: Jose Ortiz
  • Owner: Amerman Racing Stables LLC
  • Odds: 7/1
  • Betting Stats
  • Favourites: 1/6 (16.7%) | Level stake loss -43.3%
  • Odds on Favs: 0/0 (0.0%)
  • Median winning price: 6.0/1

This is still a relative newcomer to the Breeders’ Cup menu but in its short life it has been contested in California six times and certain patterns are beginning to emerge.

How has the favourite fared?
Four of the six editions here have been taken by a colt in the first three in the betting and the biggest priced winner was George Vancouver in 2012 at 9.3/1. However, the only outright favourite to score was Pounced (2.4/1) in 2009.

Run record and class clues
Four of the six winners of this division at Santa Anita were trained on this side of the Atlantic and, with Hootenanny finishing runner-up in the Prix Morny (G1) in his immediate prior run, five out of six have their final prep in Europe. None of them were based in California. Only two of the winners had taken their previous race and two of them came into the race with just a maiden win under their girth. None of the winners had taken a G1. However, three of them had finished placed in G1 stakes in Europe and Outstrip (2013) had picked up the Champagne (G2) at Doncaster.

Run styles
Last year’s winner Oscar Performance forced the pace before taking the outright lead going into the far turn before holding the chasers at bay. Prior to that the favoured run style was for stalking / deep closing types, with the latter being preferred. That may be a consequence of the fact that the early pace in the California renewals of this has been very strong.

Draw
The first five of the runnings of this in California gave a strong indication that a low draw was essential with the all the winners breaking from the five inside posts. However, last year’s victress broke from post 13 of 14 but she was followed home by Lancaster Bomber drawn 1. The scores on the doors now read Posts 1-5: 12 frame finishers (40%) v. Post 6-outside: 6 (12%). That’s still pretty telling with a similarly tight turf track to tackle at Del Mar.

Conclusions

  • A low draw is definitely advantageous.
  • Prefer juveniles with a late kick.
  • The European challenge has been strong in this division.
  • Look for decent runs in G1/G2 events over here.

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