Breeders' Cup - At The Races

19:00 Del Mar (USA) (Dirt) 4 Nov 2017

Race 4 - 14 Hands Winery Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2YO only)

Winner $1,260,000 - 13 ran

4

1m 110y

Fast (Dirt)

Weighed In

LAST YEAR'S WINNER - CHAMPAGNE ROOM

Champagne Room
  • Trainer: Peter Eurton
  • Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
  • Owner: Ciaglia Racing
  • Odds: 33/1
  • Betting Stats
  • Favourites: 3/8 (37.5%) | Level stake profit +11.3%
  • Odds on Favs: None
  • Median winning price: 5.7/1

Once upon a time this was probably the most reliable division at the Breeders’ Cup. What you saw in the Past Performances is what you got in the race and the market responded accordingly. That has gone little haywire in recent renewals out West.

How has the favourite fared?
At the beginning of the two decades being considered here, it was a case of simply following the money. However, in the last three West Coast renewals a trio of complete ‘bombs-away’ types have prevailed. With a due note of caution, it has to be acknowledged that favourite followers have received a profit in the eight runnings analysed here.

Run record and class clues
Again, this is a division of two halves. The first three winners in our timescale all arrived with a G1 score on their resumés. Since then a couple have had lesser graded successes but another pair had only a win in maiden ranks as their best effort. Last year, local trainer Peter Eurton’s Champagne Room was probably one that got away at 33/1 since she did have a G2 to her name.

The same profile applies when looking at ‘last out’ runs with early runnings providing winners coming in off strong races but the last three winners all failed to make the frame on their last prep races.

Run styles
Half of the winners were early pace types and there may be a slight advantage to being able to lie up with the pace. The only genuine deep closer to prevail was Stardom Bound and she benefitted from an unsustainable early pace which played to her strengths.

Draw
Winners have come from the inside and outside posts but the majority have emerged from the middle of the gate. Overall there doesn’t appear to be a significant advantage from the draw.

Conclusions

  • Despite what has happened in the past three years, it is best to consider the top of the market.
  • Shippers, and not necessarily from top barns, have been successful in California.
  • Prefer horses who can race on or close to the pace.
  • Don’t be deterred by an outside post.