Breeders' Cup - At The Races

22:19 Del Mar (USA) 4 Nov 2017

Race 9 - Breeders' Cup Mile (Grade 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

Winner $1,260,000 - 14 ran

9
Weighed In

LAST YEAR'S WINNER - TOURIST

Tourist
  • Trainer: William Mott
  • Jockey: Joel Rosario
  • Owner: WinStar Farm LLC, Wachtel Stable & Gary Barber
  • Odds: 33/1
  • Betting Stats
  • Favourites: 5/8 (62.5%) | Level stake profit +61.3%
  • Odds on Favs: 1/1 (100.0%) | Level stake profit+80.0%
  • Median winning price: 2.0/1

There are a number of solid factors directing punters to likely contenders coming out of the eight runnings of this division in California in the last two decades.

How has the favourite fared?
This has been a cracking contest for favourite followers, despite the fact that the two recent winners both succeeded at generous odds, particularly Karakontie in 2014. However, multi winners, the glorious Goldikova and Wise Dan help the cause of the jollies.

Run record and class clues
Every winner of this division in California in the time period being considered came into the race with one G1 win or more on their race record and all bar Karakontie arrived with at least a frame finish on their most recent start.

The European or, should I refine that and say, the French challenge has been strong with five of the eight winners headed to California from across the channel. All three US trained winners shipped in from out of state, making a poor return for local handlers, which is a surprise considering the traditional strength of turf talent out West.

Run styles
This is not a track that suits big long striding types and the ability to stay handy and use tactical speed are key assets, as is the ability to run a turn. Goldikova certainly displayed those assets when taking her first Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2008. American runners are used to tackling tracks with this configuration, pay particular attention to Europeans whose best form is around a turn.

Age group
Age is no barrier to success in this with a pretty even spread across the generations but the Classic generation has done well at Santa Anita. Interestingly, fillies have a good record in this division.

Draw
The relatively short run to the turn would encourage the belief that an inside post should be preferable but that is not borne out by where the winners have been drawn and half of the eight winners emerged from the outside three post positions.

Conclusions

  • The record of French raiders speaks for itself but all European runners are contenders
  • The market has generally been a good guide to this event.
  • A frame finish in a good quality race has been a must.
  • The classic generation and fillies do well in this.
  • Look for runners with proven tactical speed.