There are many ways to play the races, the upcoming Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita is no exception. From my experience, it’s about using all the information available to you. The result is not always a win single. It can be using a horse to outrun their odds as they are likely to be suited by the race conditions or race flow. It is also when to play. The final fields were drawn late Monday for Friday and Saturday’s events. On race day itself, I will endeavor to come up with some wagering strategies, especially where there short priced favourites.
There are bookmakers’ prices available on all 14 Breeder’s Cup races. These are now ‘day of race’ meaning you get your money back on non-runners and bookmakers rule 4 will apply. Some of the races, it is definitely worth ‘stepping in’ early. If it’s a fancy of mine or the price is likely to contract, I will stick my head on the block below. Bear in mind, betting markets have a mind of their own sometimes.
Watch the 2019 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Friday 1st and Saturday 2nd November.
Friday 1 November 2019
Wes Ward’s undefeated Four Wheel Drive as big as 9/2 may be a bit shorter. That and The Frankie Dettori-ridden A'Ali (5/1) and Ward’s other runner Kimari (10/3) will be popular. From my point of view, I am sitting on my hands until race day.
Aidan O’Brien’s Arizona (2/1) has been well backed ante-post for this event. He is the class in here but could have drawn better. Maybe he’s not much bigger odds on race day but it’s hard not to see at least that price being available.
Bast scraped home from a couple in here to win a local Grade 1 Trial for this event. She along with the impressive debut winner Donna Veloce may be a tad stronger in the market than Grade 1 winners from out of state British Idiom and Wicked Whisper but not enough to jump in at this stage.
A highly-competitive renewal and a wide-open market. Rain check until Friday.
Saturday 2 November 2019
Covfefe may have been a clear favourite for this but for drawing a potentially difficult post. She still may be preferred to the red hot Come Dancing. The next three in the market are California trained gals and could shorten. Bellafina (12/1) who is perfect at Santa Anita looks a possible springer. She plots to get a nice trip off a likely speed duel.
This is as tough a race as there is on the card. Eddie Haskell (5/1) is a solid type. Peter Miller trains defending champion Stormy Liberal. His Belvoir Bay (20/1) and Om (25/1) look a tad overpriced. The much-improved Shekky Shebaz (14/1) may go off in single figures.
From a personal betting point of view, I can live without favourite Omaha Beach (5/4). That said, he’s the most likely winner and he did frighten a few of these off into running in the Sprint. If you like him, you may not get any bigger on race day and may even go off slight odds-on.
Defending champion Sistercharlie (11/10) has a look of an odds-on favourite come post time. There may be a little bigger than 11/10 early on Saturday but that’s far from certain.
I have no view in the win market here as to the direction or the winner. I have a race flow play for Saturday for exactas (forecasts) and trifectas (tricasts)
This is an open renewal. Circus Maximus and the gals Got Stormy and Uni will rightly head the market. I do have a feeling the former John Gosden-trained Without Parole may be a springer at as big as 20/1 at the time of writing. He goes first time for Chad Brown and is it interesting he chooses this event to make his comeback in.
A bit like The Dirt Mile, the favourite deserves her short-priced billing. Midnight Bisou (5/4) could be odds on come post time. I do think Paradise Woods will take money at 9/1 on the only track she has ever won on.