Santa Anita, 1st & 2nd November 2019
12

00:44 Santa Anita (USA) 03 Nov 2019

Race 12 - Longines Breeders' Cup Classic

Grade 1 | 3YO plus

Winner $3,780,000 - 11 ran

1m 2f

Fast Dirt (Dirt)

Draw Advantage: None

LAST YEAR'S WINNER - ACCELERATE

Accelerate
  • Trainer: John Sadler
  • Jockey: Joel Rosario
  • Owner: Hronis Racing Llc
  • Odds: 13-5
  • Betting Stats
  • Favourites: 1/8 | Level stake loss -50.0%
  • Odds on Favs: 0/2 | Level stake loss -100.0%
  • Median winning price: 5.1/1

Watch the 2019 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Friday 1st and Saturday 2nd November.

The last time the Classic was contested in California, at Del Mar in 2017, we were treated to one of the most breathtaking performances of the meeting’s climax in the history of the Breeders’ Cup. Steve Asmussen’s Gun Runner took the field along through nigh on sprint fractions and, despite looking likely to pay for his early exertion, he saw it out in fine style for an exhilarating score.

How has the favourite fared?
Although only one outright favourite has taken this division, three that were second in the betting also succeeded. Curlin and California Chrome head the list of the most notable jollies who didn’t get the job done, both being sent to post at odds-on and, in total, five favourites didn’t even reach the frame.

Run record and class clues
Seven of the eight winners already had a G1 to their name, Pleasantly Perfect in 2003 was the only one who didn’t and six of the eight winners arrived off a last out win.

Four winners were trained locally and four were shippers, including one from over here, John Gosden’s Ravens Pass on the synthetic surface in 2008. Two of the locals were trained by Bob Baffert and he looks sure to make his usual strong challenge again this year.

Four victors had their final preps at Eastern US tracks (including Baffert’s brace) with three having their last stop in the Golden State.

Run styles
There has been absolutely no run style that has been advantageous, although two of the three deep closing winners came on the synthetic surface. As has been highlighted previously, the introduction of the ‘blaze away and unlikely to stay’ front runners have become rarer following the introduction of the Dirt Mile. Pace collapses appear to be a thing of the past.

Age group?
There is a pretty even spread across the age groups with three winners each coming from the classic generation and five-year-olds with the other pair being fours.

Draw
The run from the start to the first turn is usually sufficient to get the field sorted out and a decent break is usually a more important factor than the position in the starting gate. Shared Belief, favourite in 2014, proved the point after getting roughed up badly at the start and failing to get the job done.

Conclusions

  • The draw does not have a major impact on the outcome
  • Outright favourites have not been a good investment.
  • Bob Baffert usually has a strong hand to play.
  • Don’t be put off if your fancy is a shipper.
  • Five-year-olds have more impact than would be the case over here.